In The UK The Net Zero Consensus Has Crumbled

Here in the U.S., ever since the push to “de-carbonize” the energy system to “save the planet” from global warming got going in a big way 20 or so years ago, there has always been a critical mass of skeptics strongly pushing back. I count myself among them. Another prominent example is the CO2 Coalition, an organization of about 200 scientists and intellectuals who dissent from the climate orthodoxy. Large portions of our Republican Party — recently approaching near unanimity — have also joined the dissent from climate orthodoxy.

But over in Europe, the same has not been true at all; and it has particularly not been true in the UK. There, at least until very recently, there was a near total consensus across the political spectrum in favor of mandatory reductions in carbon emissions, with an ultimate goal of zero emissions. In 2008, the then-Labour-controlled UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act, setting a mandatory target for reduction of “greenhouse gas” emissions in the energy system of 80% by 2050. The vote in Parliament in favor of this Act and its mandate was 463-3 in favor. In 2019, Parliament amended the mandatory target to increase the required greenhouse gas reduction to a full 100% by 2050 — in other words, full “net zero.” That amendment passed by acclamation without any recorded dissent. This time, Theresa May was the Prime Minister, and her Conservative Party held a comfortable majority in the Parliament.

A lonely exception to the UK’s total climate consensus has been the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a small think tank founded in 2009 by Lord Nigel Lawson and Benny Peiser. (I serve on the Board of its American affiliate.). For many years, literally nobody listened to us.

We dissenters have long warned that the “net zero” fantasy was doomed to failure. A new centrally-planned energy system based mostly on intermittent wind and sun would inevitably prove to be wildly expensive, and would never be able to replace 100%, or even close to that, of the existing system. They didn’t believe us.

Well, let’s take a look at where the UK finds itself today.

The Telegraph had the story on September 30: “Britain paying highest electricity prices in the world as net zero costs rise.” (The link goes to a Yahoo re-publication of the piece that avoids the Telegraph’s paywall.). Excerpt:

New data published on Tuesday showed the price paid by UK industry for power was 63pc higher than in France and 27pc higher than in Germany. Britain is also the second-most expensive country in the world for household electricity, with billpayers paying twice as much as those in the US. . . . Cornwall Insight also warned on Tuesday that household energy bills will jump by £100 in April. The figures will increase pressure on the Energy Secretary, who has been accused of driving up electricity costs by adding green levies on to bills to fund renewables. This includes billions of pounds in subsidies for carbon capture and wind farms, which have contributed to the UK paying the highest power prices in the world.

Ed Miliband, the UK’s climate zealot Energy Secretary referred to there, is quoted attempting to shift the blame for recent net-zero-related energy price increases to — Margaret Thatcher!

[Miliband] told The Guardian: . . . “The truth is, the reason why people’s living standards are stuck, why growth has been so low and public services are on their knees, is … trickle-down economics from the 80s, which left us with huge inequality and austerity in the 20s.”

Good luck with that, Ed. But elsewhere in the UK, people are starting to catch on. Although he won’t say it out loud, even Miliband himself may be starting to catch on.

The political party currently leading in polling for parliamentary voting intentions in the next prospective UK election is Reform UK — a party only formed in 2021. (According to the most recent (September 26) poll from Politico EU, Reform UK leads with 30% of expressed voting intent, followed by Labour at 20%, Conservative at 16%, Liberal Democrats at 15%, and Greens at 10%.). Reform UK has made undoing the net zero mandate its second biggest issue after immigration. Reform UK lays out its platform in a document on its website titled “Our Contract With You.” They don’t mince any words. From page 8 of that document, headed “Net Zero is Crippling our Economy”:

Net Zero is pushing up bills, damaging British industries like steel, and making us less secure. . . . We must not impoverish ourselves in pursuit of unaffordable, unachievable global CO2 targets. CRITICAL REFORMS NEEDED IN THE FIRST 100 DAYS: Scrap Net Zero and Related Subsidies. Ditching Net Zero could save the public sector over £30 billion per year for the next 25 years. Scrap Annual £10 Billion of Renewable Energy Subsidies. Achieve this through equivalent taxes on them. Renewables are not cheaper. Our bills have increased dramatically in line with the huge increase in renewables capacity over the last 15 years.

Nor is Reform UK the only party to break ranks with the prior consensus. New Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has also recently pledged to repeal the Climate Act mandates. From Politico EU, October 2:

Kemi Badenoch’s Conservative Party has pledged to ditch the U.K.’s flagship climate law if they get back into government, in the latest signal that the party is firmly walking back on net zero commitments. . . . The Climate Change Act was ushered through parliament under Labour’s last term in power by then Energy Secretary Ed Miliband in 2008. It was backed by consecutive Conservative governments and was even tightened up by former Prime Minister Theresa May in 2019 to make the U.K.'s 2050 net zero target legally-binding.  However, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has promised to scrap it, blaming the law for pushing up energy bills and creating bureaucratic delays. “Climate change is real. But Labour’s laws tied us in red tape, loaded us with costs, and did nothing to cut global emissions,” Badenoch said.

And meanwhile, inside both the Liberal Democrats and the governing Labour Party, while they continue to talk the talk of pure climate religion, cracks are definitely starting to appear.

The Lib Dems have sought to position themselves as the most pure of all mainstream parties on climate issues. Notably, the Lib Dem platform has long called for net zero by 2045, thus five years ahead of the official Labour target of 2050. But at the Lib Dem party conference just held on September 22, members voted to ditch the earlier date and to align with the Labour target of 2050. From Politico EU, September 22:

The Liberal Democrats have scrapped their 2045 net-zero target and aligned with the Labour government's 2050 goal instead. Members passed a motion at the party's conference in Bournemouth Sunday, which supports “the U.K.’s existing net-zero framework and 2050 target.” This replaces the pledge, which had been party policy since 2019, to achieve net zero by 2045.

And even within the governing Labour Party, home of zealot Energy Minister Miliband, reality is slowly catching up. From Politico EU, September 25:

UK energy chief eyes an oil and gas loophole. . . . The U.K. government has quietly handed ministers new powers to reverse flagship climate promises and approve new drilling for fossil fuels.  Under new guidance drawn up in Whitehall, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband can give weight to the “wider benefits to the interests of the nation,” alongside environmental concerns, when deciding the future of controversial oil and gas fields.  Miliband has long insisted the U.K. must wean itself off high-polluting fossil fuels produced in oil and gas heartlands off the Scottish coast and embrace clean energy, like solar and wind power. But experts believe the new powers, buried in guidance published this summer by Miliband’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, provide a loophole to approve more drilling. 

It’s rather odd to see them calling oil and gas drilling a “loophole,” since the whole point of net zero has been to drive oil and gas entirely out of the energy system.

The simple conclusion to be drawn is that the inevitable cost impact of chasing the impossible net zero dream has caught up with its proponents. With soaring costs now crippling British industry and crushing consumers, net zero has become electorally toxic. Miliband can try blaming Thatcher or oil companies or whoever he wants, but at some point the voters aren’t that stupid.

It may be a while until the next election, but when it comes, I would expect it to be the death knell for net zero in the UK.