May 11, 2020

So What Was The Russia Hoax Really About?

May 11, 2020/ Francis Menton

Have you been thinking lately that the more we learn about the Obama administration’s Russia hoax, the less sense it makes? For years now, the working hypothesis of conservative pundits has been that the narrative of Trump campaign collusion with Russia was a Deep State plot from the likes of Brennan/Comey/McCabe/Strzok to weaken and potentially remove Trump from office — a “soft coup,” if you will.
That hypothesis was always hard to understand — why would such high ranking officials take big risks with such a transparently ridiculous narrative with little chance of succeeding? — and in my view has become even less consistent with what we know as more facts have recently come out.
So what was the Russia hoax really about? Here’s my alternative hypothesis. Its origin was entirely about giving Hillary an illicit assist in winning the 2016 election.

May 08, 2020

Republican Governors Are Kicking The Butts Of Democratic Governors On Covid-19 Response

May 08, 2020/ Francis Menton

The governors of the 50 states got handed a heavy responsibility by this virus to make decisions as to whether to impose a “lockdown” on their respective economies, and if so, how severe of one. Lock down too little, and you could face higher infection and death rates than other states, for which you would get immediate media attacks and blame; but lock down too much, and you could impose massive and potentially unnecessary economic harm on your citizens.
Universally, the so-called “expert” medical and scientific advisors counseled in favor of the most severe possible lockdowns — but then, their focus is only on preventing the deaths, and they have no particular expertise in the workings of an economy.
While the dichotomy is not perfect, in general most Democratic governors opted for early and strict versions of lockdown, and have not begun to ease their lockdowns even now; meanwhile most Republican governors imposed lockdowns later (or in at least one case, not at all), and in less severe form, and have begun loosening them earlier.
The results of the differing policies are far from final at this point, but data have begun to emerge. . . .

May 06, 2020

May 06, 2020/ Francis Menton

It’s the time of the coronavirus, and as we all know, that means that it is the moral responsibility of all governors and state health officials to issue “lockdown” commands, compelling all “non-essential” businesses to close until further notice.
Although the sweep and severity of these “lockdown” commands has varied from state to state, at this point the governors of most states have ordered the closure of nearly all restaurants, bars, hotels, gyms, hair salons, and thousands of similar businesses.
Obviously, the immediate result of these orders was going to be that the employees of the businesses would get furloughed or laid off. Some 26 million new unemployment claims had been filed by late April, with more undoubtedly to be revealed in the next weekly report.
Of course, with thousands of businesses shuttering, and their revenues disappearing, state and local tax revenues are also falling off a cliff. So if the same rules apply to these governmental entities as to private businesses, they would be about to make massive layoffs as well.
And yet, if you look at discussion about how state and local governments should deal with their own financial issues, somehow the whole idea that government workers might get laid off is beyond the purview of polite discussion.

May 05, 2020

May 05, 2020/ Francis Menton

It has been obvious now for multiple years that the whole Trump/Russia “collusion” narrative was a total hoax from the start, concocted by high-ranking but rogue members of the intelligence community in the latter days of the Obama administration.
This misuse of the powers of the government by the intelligence community to attempt to influence the 2016 election, and then to undermine President Trump after his election, has been described by many as the greatest scandal in American political history. The perpetrators of the scandal range from CiA head John Brennan, to FBI head James Comey, to FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe, to senior FBI agent Peter Strzok, and many others too numerous to mention.
All of the people named have lost their previous jobs, but beyond that none have thus far faced any consequences, particularly any criminal prosecution. They have books on sale or cable news gigs or both. We know that a federal criminal prosecutor, John Durham, has been named by Attorney General Barr to look into the matter, but after many months, we hear nothing. Several commenters have asked for my thoughts on whether criminal consequences are likely for any of these miscreants, and, if so, on what basis.
My bottom line: As egregious as the conduct of these people was, I still think it’s only about 50/50 that any of them get charged and convicted of any criminal offense.

May 03, 2020

May 03, 2020/ Francis Menton

The criminal case against Michael Flynn has been back in the news for the past week or so. Retired General Flynn, you will recall, was a top foreign policy advisor to President Trump during the 2016 campaign, and then took the job of National Security Advisor to the President a few days after the inauguration on January 20, 2017.
Flynn lasted in that job all of about three weeks, resigning on February 13, 2017.
Over the next several months there were persistent indications that Flynn was being investigated for something or other by the FBI, and then by the Mueller gang once their probe got going in May 2017. Flynn ended up taking a guilty plea on November 30, 2017. A complete set of Flynn’s plea documents can be found at this link.
Recently, Flynn, with new lawyers, has been seeking to get himself exonerated despite his prior agreement to plead guilty.
To anyone paying attention, it has been completely clear, at least since the public availability of the plea agreement in late 2017, that Flynn was set up by corrupt FBI agents and Mueller prosecutors.

April 29, 2020

April 29, 2020/ Francis Menton

Here in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, the “Phase Three” stimulus, aka the CARES Act, passed Congress at the end of March. Immediately we moved on to Phase Four, which however is still making its way through the legislative sausage factory. All the talk is of another trillion or more. What will that include?
If you put that question to the National Governors Association, the item at the top of the list will be big bucks for direct unrestricted support for the budgets of state governments. Here is a report from NPR about the NGA meeting on April 11, where the governors put some of their demands on the table:
National Governors Association Chair Larry Hogan, R-Md., and Gov. Andrew Cuomo, D-N.Y., the group's top Democrat, are issuing a joint call for Congress to approve $500 billion in direct aid to states . . .