April 27, 2020

What Is The True Level Of Mortality Caused By The Covid-19 Virus?

April 27, 2020/ Francis Menton

Several commenters on yesterday’s post express a strong interest in learning the true level of mortality from the Chinese Virus.
Are the numbers reported at sites like Worldometers as “Coronavirus Deaths” accurate and reliable, or are they inflated? Or, for that matter, could it be that the number of “Coronavirus Deaths” is under-reported for reasons that could include people dying at home without ever being tested?

My answer is that it is impossible to know at this point. The best indication we will get will come when the CDC issues final data for deaths from all causes in the U.S. for the month of April.
When we get that number, we can subtract from it the approximate “normal” number of deaths that would have occurred anyway during April. The difference will be a good estimate of the number of excess deaths attributable to the virus.

April 26, 2020

New York Progressives Officially Determine That All Wealth Comes From The Tooth Fairy

April 26, 2020/ Francis Menton

You undoubtedly know that, among all the states, New York has been hardest hit by the Covid-19 virus. New York is also home to a highly-educated and progressive-minded population. Surely then, New York has many important lessons to teach the rest of the country as to how to deal with a crisis like this.
It was on March 20 that our Governor Andrew Cuomo announced a strong version of a total business lockdown. As of that date there were fewer than 300 deaths attributed to the virus in the whole U.S., and less than half that number in New York. From the Wall Street Journal, March 20:
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo [today] ordered all nonessential businesses to close and said residents should stay home as the state further clamps down on human activity to stem the spread of the new coronavirus.
Although economic statistics post-dating this order have not yet been released, it is clear that there has been a devastating effect on New York’s economy; exactly how devastating remains to be seen.

April 23, 2020

April 23, 2020/ Francis Menton

Back on April 2, when the $2+ trillion “CARES” Act had just cleared Congress, I issued a warning to “make no mistake — this is a perilous moment.”
The country had reached seemingly unanimous consensus that all previous budget constraints no longer apply to federal government spending. After all, we are in a crisis. Therefore we must spend “whatever it takes” — a term with no definition and no limits.
With all sensible judgment now thrown to the winds, this would be the perfect time for the well-connected and the corrupt to swoop in to grab the extra tens of billions they have long lusted after.
And of course, this is exactly what has happened. Every thoroughly corrupt left-wing priority — from wind power subsidies to teachers union contracts — has its lobbyists there in Washington trying to get in on the next handout (aka “stimulus”) gravy train.

April 20, 2020

April 20, 2020/ Francis Menton

A few days ago — after initially seeming to say that he had absolute authority to determine when and how the economy could reopen — President Trump instead issued a set of guidelines and then left it up to the various governors to make their own determinations.
Since then, different governors have gone different directions on the issue. As with most everything else in our crazy world, there is a clear red/blue divide on the decisions being taken.
Before looking at some of the announcements that have come from various governors, let’s first go to the house organ of progressive groupthink, the New York Times, to get the official talking points on the correct strategy. . . .

April 16, 2020

April 16, 2020/ Francis Menton

We are in the midst of an event that is completely unique in the history of our country, and as far as I can tell, in the history of the world: namely, the intentional suppression by governments (in the U.S., both federal and states) of a very large percentage of economic activity, in an effort to control a dangerous disease.
There are estimates that the U.S. economy could decline by as much as 38% from its recent peak as a consequence of this great economic suppression. In a matter of just a few weeks, tens of millions of people, many of low to moderate income, have been suddenly thrown out of work; hundreds of thousands of businesses have closed, of which an unknown number may never be able to reopen; and trillions of dollars of value have been lost in the stock market.
Surely this kind of devastating government response would not be undertaken unless this disease represented a true crisis, and unless there was also solid evidence that the economic suppression would quickly end the crisis.

April 14, 2020

April 14, 2020/ Francis Menton

An actual national and international crisis has a way of focusing the mind on what is truly important.
Our recent coronavirus pandemic may or may not rise on its own to the level of bona fide “crisis” — more on that in a subsequent post — but certainly when you add in the response of governments at all levels, it’s hard to dispute that the current unpleasantness is a crisis for large numbers of Americans involuntarily thrown out of work, as well as for many businesses, and for the economy.
And sure enough, the national conversation has turned almost exclusively to the virus and its consequences, to the exclusion of most everything else.
Do you even remember the issues that our thought leaders were all obsessing over in unison a short couple of months ago? . . .