March 01, 2023

Race And Murder In Chicago

March 01, 2023/ Francis Menton

In Chicago on Tuesday, current Mayor Lori Lightfoot lost her bid for re-election.
In a race where only the top two finishers would advance to the final round, Lightfoot finished third, with 17.1% of the vote. Of nine total candidates, the top two vote-getters were Paul Vallas (33.7% of the vote) and Brandon Johnson (20.3%). Those two will now compete in a runoff in April.
The New York Times, which provided those voting data, described Lightfoot in its February 28 report as someone “whose outsider status and promises to enact sweeping reforms propelled her to office four years ago,” but who “saw her popularity plunge as homicides reached generational highs and as Chicago struggled to rebound from the pandemic.”
It couldn’t have happened to a more deserving person.

February 26, 2023

Don't Believe The Geniuses Claiming To Know Our Energy Future

February 26, 2023/ Francis Menton

“Stranded assets.” You know what those are. Probably you’ve read a hundred or more articles over the past few years confidently proclaiming that oil and gas fields and coal mines owned by large energy companies will soon become worthless, as production of energy shifts to “cleaner” and “cheaper” things like wind and solar.
The owners of the fossil fuel properties won’t be able to sell them for even a dollar. The assets will thus be “stranded.”
The “stranded assets” predictions unsurprisingly come from the same crowd who are also ordering up the electric car future. For just a tiny sample of recent pieces making the stranded assets point . . .

February 23, 2023

February 23, 2023/ Francis Menton

It seems like all the smart people have made up their minds that the future of automobiles belongs to electric vehicles.
In August 2022, California, by regulation, adopted a ban on gasoline-powered cars by 2035; and in September 2022, New York promptly followed with its own ban, also by regulation, and also set for 2035. And at the federal level, in 2021 the Biden Administration ordered that all agencies move toward 100% procurement of electric vehicles, also by 2035. Meanwhile, by means of a thicket of regulations — from vehicle mileage standards to pollution caps and more — the administration overtly seeks to force manufacturers to convert their lineups to EVs as fast as possible.
So, are electric vehicles about to sweep the country and become the dominant form of transportation? I bet against it. This is just a specific instance of the general principle that it is always wise to bet against central planning of the economy.

February 21, 2023

February 21, 2023/ Francis Menton

A recurring theme here at Manhattan Contrarian is that the “smart” people who seek to run the world are not really very smart.
They may have gotten high scores on the SATs, and they may have attended fancy universities, but when it comes to practical knowledge of how the world works they are often complete idiots.
A special case of this phenomenon is that the highest gurus of high finance — the people who are most trusted to have mastered basic numeracy, and who get to pass out trillions of dollars of public funds — are completely innumerate.
As obvious as the conclusion of increasing electricity prices may be, our government, represented by EPA and the Justice Department, either claims, or pretends, not to recognize that conclusion. Could seemingly smart people really be so dense?

February 17, 2023

February 17, 2023/ Francis Menton

Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) — it’s the mantra repeated endlessly by virtually every significant institution in our country except, very recently, for the governments of a few red states.
But with that sole exception, every institution you can think of, from universities, to major corporations, law firms, art museums, symphony orchestras, Hollywood, charitable NGOs, etc., etc., not to mention the federal government and all of the blue state governments — all of them are on fully on board.
While the DEI concept might have a few nuances here and there, stripped to its basics it means one simple thing: we commit to having 13% or more of our high status positions (high paying jobs, executives, board of directors) be African Americans.
Let’s put aside for the moment whether such a commitment can be accomplished consistent with the law prohibiting discrimination in employment, and consider an even more basic question: Is it even physically possible for every significant institution in the country to accomplish this result at the same time? Where are the people going to come from to fill all the positions?

February 14, 2023

February 14, 2023/ Francis Menton

It is gratifying to see a few other commentators starting to notice the dramatic contrasts between New York and Florida in government spending and policy outcomes.
You may already be aware of the truly incredible difference in state government spending between New York and Florida.
But what you may not be aware of is the shocking lack of measurable benefit that New Yorkers get for all their extra spending.