April 20, 2020

To Reopen, Or Not To Reopen? That Is The Question

April 20, 2020/ Francis Menton

A few days ago — after initially seeming to say that he had absolute authority to determine when and how the economy could reopen — President Trump instead issued a set of guidelines and then left it up to the various governors to make their own determinations.
Since then, different governors have gone different directions on the issue. As with most everything else in our crazy world, there is a clear red/blue divide on the decisions being taken.
Before looking at some of the announcements that have come from various governors, let’s first go to the house organ of progressive groupthink, the New York Times, to get the official talking points on the correct strategy. . . .

April 16, 2020

What Is The Proof That This Covid-19 Thing Really Is A "Crisis," Or That Economic Suppression Is The Solution?

April 16, 2020/ Francis Menton

We are in the midst of an event that is completely unique in the history of our country, and as far as I can tell, in the history of the world: namely, the intentional suppression by governments (in the U.S., both federal and states) of a very large percentage of economic activity, in an effort to control a dangerous disease.
There are estimates that the U.S. economy could decline by as much as 38% from its recent peak as a consequence of this great economic suppression. In a matter of just a few weeks, tens of millions of people, many of low to moderate income, have been suddenly thrown out of work; hundreds of thousands of businesses have closed, of which an unknown number may never be able to reopen; and trillions of dollars of value have been lost in the stock market.
Surely this kind of devastating government response would not be undertaken unless this disease represented a true crisis, and unless there was also solid evidence that the economic suppression would quickly end the crisis.

April 14, 2020

April 14, 2020/ Francis Menton

An actual national and international crisis has a way of focusing the mind on what is truly important.
Our recent coronavirus pandemic may or may not rise on its own to the level of bona fide “crisis” — more on that in a subsequent post — but certainly when you add in the response of governments at all levels, it’s hard to dispute that the current unpleasantness is a crisis for large numbers of Americans involuntarily thrown out of work, as well as for many businesses, and for the economy.
And sure enough, the national conversation has turned almost exclusively to the virus and its consequences, to the exclusion of most everything else.
Do you even remember the issues that our thought leaders were all obsessing over in unison a short couple of months ago? . . .

April 12, 2020

April 12, 2020/ Francis Menton

Today, Easter Sunday, I made my first excursion into Manhattan in more than a month.
After collecting a few needed items (the mail, some clothes, etc.) we turned around and left almost as soon as we had arrived. But I took the occasion to take a few pictures to record the strange situation for posterity.
You may think of Manhattan as the site of nothing but sterile concrete canyons; and there are some of those.
But in the residential districts like Greenwich Village, there are also plenty of trees and beautiful gardens. At this time of year the gardens are just coming into full flower, but right now there are few people around to enjoy them.

April 09, 2020

April 09, 2020/ Francis Menton

The American progressive or “Democratic Socialist” — think Bernie Sanders — typically holds up some or all of Europe as the model for the U.S. to follow.
Now the Chinese virus has hit. Many countries in Europe — starting with Italy and Spain, but also France and others — have it far worse than we do in terms of number of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths per capita. Economic shutdowns similar to ours have swept the continent. Many businesses have shut, GDP has cratered, unemployment is spiking, and millions suddenly can’t pay their bills.
Over there, they don’t blink an eye before spending as much of the infinite pile of taxpayer cash as it takes to make everything perfectly fair and just. Surely then, Europe has much to teach us benighted Americans about how to use the beneficent powers of government to deal with this new kind of crisis.
Or do they?
In fact, it turns out the the EU governing model didn’t anticipate this one. . . .

April 07, 2020

April 07, 2020/ Francis Menton

Do you “need” a government bailout right now? How do you tell?
I know that I “need” a bailout. Here’s how I know: I’m a lot less well off than I was a couple of months ago. Meanwhile, the landlord still expects to be paid the same amount; the credit card company still expects to be paid, the cell phone company still expects to be paid, the internet provider still expects to be paid, the health insurance company still expects to be paid, the property tax bill is the same, the groceries cost the same, etc., etc. etc.
Obviously I cannot be expected to support the same collection of expenses with reduced resources. The federal government needs to step up and bail me out!
Does my logic there appear to you to be sound — or, does it perhaps appear a bit deficient? . . .