The Homeless Industrial Complex Eats San Francisco For Lunch

The Homeless Industrial Complex Eats San Francisco For Lunch
  • It’s been a long time since I have done an update on the homelessness situation in San Francisco. The reason is that I have avoided the issue until sufficient evidence had accumulated to make the obvious conclusion completely definitive and undeniable.

  • It was all the way back in 2018 that some of San Francisco’s foremost do-gooders, led by billionaire Salesforce founder Marc Benioff, organized a referendum to implement a new payroll tax to raise the revenue to solve the homelessness problem once and for all.

  • The referendum was designed to raise some $300 million per year, on top of San Fran’s already generous homelessness spending. All of the new spending was to be dedicated to the task of ending the homelessness crisis.

  • On October 24, 2018 — just a few days before the referendum was scheduled to take place — Benioff got an op-ed published in the New York Times advocating for its passage. The gist of the op-ed was that it was time for San Francisco’s business community to step up and get this done.

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A New Line Of Attack On New York's Rent Regulation Regime

  • In New York’s large suite of self-destructive public policies, it’s hard to choose which one is the very worst. But an excellent candidate is the regime for regulation of residential rents, mostly going by the name of Rent Stabilization.

  • Because of rent regulation, New York’s rental housing stock is older, more outdated, and less well-maintained than the housing of any other American city. If you got yourself into one of the regulated apartments a few decades ago, you likely enjoy a significant bargain on your monthly rent versus comparable space, to go along with your 30- or 40-year old kitchen and bathroom fixtures and appliances, and insufficient electricity to run a toaster and a hair-dryer at the same time. Try to upgrade to something a little more up-to-date and you will find that your rent will triple, so you are locked in to this one apartment for life. Meanwhile, kids just out of school who have gotten an entry-level job in New York and try to break into the rental market find that they face the highest rental prices in the country. In other words, it’s the progressive vision of perfect justice and fairness for all.

  • Another effect of the regulation regime has been to seriously degrade the value of the buildings and apartments subject to the rules. So you might ask, if the price control regime takes away all or most of the value of a property, doesn’t this at some point become a “taking” under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, giving the property owners the right to seek “just compensation” from the state for the loss of value?

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Doubling Down On The Worst Possible Public Policy ("Affordable Housing" In Manhattan)

Doubling Down On The Worst Possible Public Policy ("Affordable Housing" In Manhattan)
  • I often write about the folly of attempting, through a myriad of government mandates and subsidies, to compel the replacement of our electricity system with one powered by the wind and sun. You may think it would be impossible to come up with any public policy that is worse than that one of a forced energy system transformation.

  • And yet, the Manhattan Contrarian designee for “worst possible public policy” has gone to something else. That something else is the building of what they call “affordable housing” on some of the world’s most expensive real estate here in Manhattan.

  • The term “affordable housing” as used by housing advocates is a euphemistic term of art that means something different from what you would think. What it really means is subsidized and income restricted.

  • The policies of forced energy transition and of building “affordable housing” in Manhattan share some notable characteristics. One is that a few simple observations are sufficient to demonstrate that the policy wastes vasts amounts of taxpayer resources while accomplishing essentially nothing and indeed being destructive. Another is that there is near total consensus among the Manhattan cognoscenti that the policy is a not only good idea but indeed a moral imperative.

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HUD: You Are Getting Scammed By NYCHA. Time To Pay Attention!

  • A favorite subject of mine over the years has been the New York City Housing Authority, or NYCHA.

  • NYCHA operates hundreds of buildings housing some 500,000 people, in some 170,000 +/- apartments, mostly built from the 1950s to the 1970s. Organized on a pure socialist model of public ownership with heavily subsidized rents, NYCHA has followed the trajectory of all socialist schemes ever attempted, having gone from an excited beginning into a long, slow death spiral that has now been ongoing for at least two decades.

  • When NYCHA was building the buildings, everyone seems to have assumed that bricks and mortar just last forever; so nobody bothered to consider that at some point the capital investment would need to be renewed, or to plan for how that would be done.

  • By the 2010s, the buildings were turning 40, 50 and even 60 years old. In 2015 NYCHA announced that it had suddenly discovered a need for some $17 billion to fund urgently-needed repairs. Thereafter, the amounts claimed to be needed for such repairs escalated rapidly: by 2021 it was $32 billion; and by 2023 a new “audit” found the “need” to be $78 billion — about $460,000 per unit. And this is for “low income” housing. (For comparison, according to the most recent data from FRED, the median price of a single family house in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2025 was about $410,000.)

  • So what’s the plan now?

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Perhaps Rube Goldberg Can Fix The Woes Of the New York City Housing Authority

Perhaps Rube Goldberg Can Fix The Woes Of the New York City Housing Authority
  • Over the years I have returned repeatedly to the subject of the New York City Housing Authority, or NYCHA.

  • Begun with great optimism prior to World War II, NYCHA expanded rapidly in the 1960s and 70s, until it housed around 500,000 people. The economic model was always pure unmodified socialism — the government owns everything, rents are tied to income (“to each according to his needs”), and any shortfalls in paying costs fall on the taxpayers. But after all, we will save oodles of money because there will be no profits for the evil developers. For a few of my prior posts, see here, here and here

  • The socialist economic model always lacked any mechanism to renew the capital investment in the buildings as they aged. After 2000, buildings were turning 30, 40 and even 50 years old.

  • Beginning in the 2010s, NYCHA started regularly announcing large sums of money that it claimed it needed urgently for major repairs to these buildings.

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New York City's Ongoing "Affordable Housing" Follies

  • “Affordable housing.” Who could be against that? Surely an energetic, well-intentioned government ought to be able to come up with some programs or initiatives to make housing more affordable for low and moderate-income residents.

  • In practice, the State and City of New York have been pursuing the Holy Grail of “affordable housing” through government compulsion for close to a century.

  • After all that, what we have is the most expensive housing market in the country. Somehow everything they try to generate more “affordable housing” proves only to make the situation worse.

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