Is China's Economy Growing Or Shrinking?
/Back in May 2024, I had a post titled “So How Are Things Going In China?” The post was inspired by a New York Times article of April 15 of that year that had reported that China’s economy had grown “more than expected” in the first three months of 2024; and by a just-issued IMF prediction that China’s economy would grow by 5% in 2024.
To believe the New York Times and the IMF, in 2024 the Chinese economy was growing at an annual rate of 5% or more. For 2025, China again reported a GDP growth rate of about 5%.
Meanwhile, the reported rates for U.S. GDP growth were 2.8% for 2024 and 2.1% for 2025. It looks like China is beating the pants off us. Surely, it can only be a few more years before China’s economy overtakes ours as the largest in the world.
Well, maybe things aren’t quite that simple.


