February 29, 2020

Is Manhattan About To Get Drowned By The Sea?

February 29, 2020/ Francis Menton

Nothing, and I mean nothing, leads so quickly to the loss of all critical faculties as global warming hysteria.
One key claim in the maelstrom of global warming hype is the assertion that sea level will shortly rise and swamp coastal cities. I would put this claim in the category of total BS. For more detail than you would ever want to know on that subject, go to this link.
But for today’s purposes, assume that there is something to the claim of a big impending sea level rise.
I live here in Manhattan, specifically Lower Manhattan (the southern part of the island). If sea level is about to rise and swamp coastal cities, Manhattan looks like ground zero, and Lower Manhattan in particular. We are an island surrounded by estuaries, otherwise known as the sea. . . .

February 25, 2020

Could We Really Be Facing Russia 2.0?

February 25, 2020/ Francis Menton

It was January 10, 2017 — just 10 days before President Trump’s inauguration — when Buzzfeed published the text of what came to be called the “Trump-Russia Dossier.” That event set off a tsunami of what easily became thousands of articles in the mainstream press claiming or suggesting that there had been some sort of “collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russia to “hack the election.”
I first commented on the subject a few weeks later in a post on March 2, 2017 titled “What Is With This Weird Obsession With Russia?” In the midst of what were at that moment multiple articles every day in every mainstream press outlet obsessing over the supposed Trump-Russia cabal, that post made the obvious point that the whole idea that Russia had colluded with Trump or his people to help him win the election made no sense whatsoever.
Perhaps the most definitive reason why the thesis made no sense was that Russia’s energy-dependent economy had been crippled by the fall in oil and gas prices that had occurred in about 2014-15, brought about by American fracking, and if Putin was even remotely rational he would prefer the candidate who proposed to restrict American energy development over the candidate who proposed to unleash it.
Two plus years of Russia! Russia! Russia! later, the Mueller Report (released April 18, 2019) finally put the whole thing to rest. Or so we thought. . . .

February 23, 2020

February 23, 2020/ Francis Menton

Bernie Sanders has now scored a decisive victory in the Nevada caucuses, and is leading in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in almost every upcoming state. The RCP betting odds section gives Sanders a 55.6% chance of winning the nomination. It’s looking increasingly like the nomination is his to lose.
Well, if you’re the party of free stuff, why shouldn’t the guy who offers the most free stuff win? Bernie is clearly willing to outbid all of his rivals in the free stuff auction. What makes you think anybody can beat him by just bidding less?
At some point, if another candidate is going to prevail with a lesser bid, that candidate needs to articulate a limiting principle in some shape or form.
By a limiting principle, I mean a reasoned argument that provides some sort of rationale as to why government programs and expenditures to solve all human wants and needs can’t just be infinite; and that provides some basis for drawing a line beyond which government growth should not occur. . . .

February 21, 2020

February 21, 2020/ Francis Menton

Over the period from November 2018 to March 2019, I wrote a series of posts on the subject of the true costs of trying to get electricity from intermittent wind and solar sources.
The gist of all this was that you can’t realistically evaluate the cost of getting electricity using the intermittent renewable sources just by looking at the cost of making a kilowatt-hour of electricity when the source happens to be working at its best.
Sure, a solar panel may generate some very cheap kilowatt-hours around noon on a sunny June 21. But now that you’ve invested a few billion in solar panels, what is the plan to provide the electricity people need on an overcast December 21, when the panels may work at only 3% of capacity during the day and nothing at night?
If your plan is a backup system of fossil fuel facilities, now you are paying for both the solar panels and the fossil fuel plants, so you’ve close-to-doubled the cost of electricity no matter how cheap the power from the solar panels may be on the June day; plus your fossil fuel plants will still be running most of the time, and your emissions reductions will be minimal.
If you want serious emissions reductions, you will need to push past 50% and on to 100% of your power from renewables, so you will need to phase out the fossil fuel plants. And replace them with — what?? And at what cost?

February 18, 2020

February 18, 2020/ Francis Menton

Last week, the Justice Department overruled the line prosecutors on the Roger Stone case, and withdrew an extraordinary sentence recommendation of 7 to 9 years; and President Trump issued several tweets supporting that action and criticizing the prosecutors. Immediately, the reaction from the left moved into high hyperbole.
It’s some combination of total lack of self-awareness and complete confidence that the progressive media will never call out how ridiculous this is. Even if you are twirling along with the media spin, it’s impossible not to notice the difference in treatment between say, Andrew McCabe on the one hand (investigation dropped), and George Papadopoulos and Michael Flynn on the other (coerced guilty pleas for far less serious conduct).
But these are just the most recent and most high-profile cases. It’s easy to forget the large number of politicized prosecutions from just the last several years brought by Democrat prosecutors and targeting Republicans. . . .

February 15, 2020

February 15, 2020/ Francis Menton

You’ve got to hand it to President Trump for his talent to capitalize on issues that force the political left to show its worst totalitarian tendencies and contempt for ordinary people. For a recent Exhibit A, see the State of the Union address.
We now have an excellent Exhibit B, a draft Executive Order on the subject of the architectural style of federal buildings. The document is titled “Making Federal Buildings Beautiful Again.” Let’s call it the MFBBA.
The draft MFBBA was first reported by Architectural Digest on February 4, and comes with a legend declaring it to be “DELIBERATIVE/PRE-DECISIONAL/PRIVILEGED.” As far as I can determine, it has not been issued in final form, and it may never be; or it might be changed substantially before final issuance.
But in its current form it is certainly not designed to avoid controversy. It begins with a brief history of federal architecture: